In June 2023, top Indian officials warned then-Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina about the pro-China leanings of General Waker-us-Zaman, who was about to be appointed as the Bangladesh Army Chief. Despite these warnings, Hasina went ahead with the appointment. This decision played a significant role in her eventual downfall.
General Zaman’s Role in Rising Protests
Instead of quelling the rising youth protests in Bangladesh, General Zaman gave Sheikh Hasina an ultimatum: leave the country with her sister. This bold move indicated a shift in power and signaled a lack of support for Hasina from the military.
Release of Khaleda Zia and Rise of Islamist Influence
The release of opposition leader Khaleda Zia by the military junta further demonstrated a shift in political dynamics. Islamist groups, such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatrashibir, are expected to play a more prominent role in Bangladesh’s politics moving forward.
Hasina’s Reluctance and Fear for Her Family
As early as April 2023, Hasina had expressed her reluctance to run in the January 2024 general elections. She feared for her and her family’s safety, knowing the threats posed by Islamists and potential regime change forces. Her concerns were not unfounded, as she believed that her family members could be targeted if they succeeded her.
India’s Dilemma and Future Actions
With Sheikh Hasina’s departure, India finds itself in a challenging position. The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has promised not to abandon their ally. They may offer Hasina political asylum in a third country.
India now faces an unstable eastern border with a potentially radical regime in Bangladesh. The Indian government must consider strengthening border security, gathering better intelligence, and addressing internal threats to ensure stability.
Bangladesh’s Economic Crisis and Uncertain Future
Bangladesh, much like its neighbors Pakistan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, is on the brink of an economic crisis. The country may soon need assistance from Western-backed financial institutions. The high unemployment rate and dissatisfaction among radicalized students could lead to further instability if the new government’s solutions don’t meet their expectations.
Regional Instability and India’s Concerns
The political turmoil in Bangladesh adds to the instability in South Asia, where most of India’s neighbors, except Bhutan, are experiencing political upheaval. India’s focus will likely shift to insulating itself from potential cross-border issues and ensuring national security amid a rapidly changing regional landscape.
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